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BOSOX  June 2011, Week 1

BOSOX June 2011, Week 1

Subject:

List win predictions (was: is this list fading?)

From:

Andrew Hupman <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Andrew Hupman <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 3 Jun 2011 13:55:21 -0300

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (83 lines)

As a matter of curiosity to see if there was any truth to the perception of
lower participation on the list, I decided to take a look at the last 6
years of the annual list win predictions.  Based on this measure, it would
appear that there is lower participation - after the drop-off from 2006,
participation in the prediction contest has been steady until this year.
However, once I started looking at the predictions it was also interesting
to look at some of the data in more detail.


2006:
Number of predictions: 107
Median prediction: 96
Average prediction: 96.37
Actual wins: 86
Link to chart showing distributions of predictions: http://goo.gl/RlYgi

2007:
Number of predictions: 85
Median prediction: 96
Average prediction: 95.54
Actual wins: 96 (we got this one right!)
Link to chart showing distributions of predictions: http://goo.gl/hTRph

2008:
Number of predictions: 86
Median prediction: 94
Average prediction: 94.52
Actual wins: 95
Link to chart showing distributions of predictions: http://goo.gl/RVs4S

2009:
Number of predictions: 88
Median prediction: 94
Average prediction: 94.31
Actual wins: 95
Link to chart showing distributions of predictions: http://goo.gl/ltjSc

2010:
Number of predictions: 86
Median prediction: 95
Average prediction: 94.92
Actual wins: 89
Link to chart showing distributions of predictions: http://goo.gl/3L4ys

2011:
Number of predictions: 71
Median prediction: 97 (our most optimistic year yet!)
Average prediction: 96.87
Actual wins: N/A
Link to chart showing distributions of predictions: http://goo.gl/jDr5n


Other interesting items:

Across those 6 years, there's been 159 different people that have submitted
523 predictions. 39 list members that have submitted a prediction every
year.

The most optimistic list member is Rick Audas predicting a total of 594 wins
over the six year period (one could argue a person has to be overly
optimistic to survive Newfoundland winters).  Following Rick is Chris Savage
predicting 590 wins (contrasting his brother Tim's more pessimistic view of
574 wins).

Apparently I see the glass as half empty every year with the second least
number of wins predicted (539) over the 6 years.  For Bob Roy, not only is
the glass half empty, it appears to be leaking.  His 6 year predictions
total only 534.  Our pessimism paid off last year as we were both correct in
predicting 89 wins in 2010.

There's been 45 list members that have submitted predictions each year
between 2006-2010.  The five year grand prize goes to Mike Neel who was the
only one to have his predictions sum to the total of the Red Sox 461 wins
over that span (although he has never been right in one of those years).

And to answer a question posted on the list earlier in the year, of the list
members with predictions for each year between 2006-2010, there have been
only three multiple time winners.  Congrats to Jonathan Kolodny (2007 and
2009), Dennis Wygmans (2008 and 2009), and William Messer (2008 and 2009).


Andrew.

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